The Math of the Convention

updatejune15th

This article was initially written by John Laurits on his blog.  I wanted to share it here because not all of my followers here are my followers on Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

The National Convention:
The Math, as it stands on June 15th

Greetings, sisters, brothers, & others — I hope you are all doing well, in spite of these dark times of media-blackouts & counter-revolutionary propaganda. I’m writing to you today to arm you with the real numbers that are at play — unfortunately (yet unsurprisingly), the Lame-Stream Media has turned even more fully against our movement than before and they’re spreading misinformation like a plague of fear & doubt. But do not worry yourselves — just as darkness is dispelled by lighting a candle,misinformation & lies vanish before the light of knowledge…

So — shall we kindle a flame? 

The Straight Numbers

First of all, for those of you who may not have heard — C/inton has not clinched the nomination & Super-delegates do not vote until July 25th. She does nothave the 2,383 pledged delegates that are needed to clinch — nor will she,as there are no more primaries. Anyone who says otherwise is either a liar or they simply don’t know what they’re talking about.

As of now, June 15th, according to the Green Papers (bookmark them, they’ll never lie to you like the NYT does), the pledged delegate count stands thusly:

Bernie Sanders | 1,833 / 45.2%
Hillary Clinton | 2,218 / 54.8%

And you know what? That’s not actually that bad and — while the primaries themselves are over — there are still quite a few opportunities for the numbers to shift. One of these opportunities is the results from California, where the “news” is mostly ignoring the facts that 3 counties have flipped to Bernie & that there are still millions of ballots to process. These results will take a few weeks to fully emerge & that will get it’s own article, though (soon, be patient…).

Something to Keep in Mind…

Remember: now that all of the 4,051 pledged delegates are “accounted for” (theyshouldn’t be, but that’s another issue…), every delegate that we gain — whether from state conventions, from recounts, from updated California results, or from whatever else — each delegate is taken from $hillary’s total and added to Bernie Sanders’ total. In other words, while there are 385 delegates between C/inton & Sanders, we only need half of that number to catch up — make sense? We don’t need to gain 385 delegates — we only need to gain 193 delegates to take the lead.

I totally stole this & I encourage you to steal this & share it — I hope the maker doesn’t mind

29 States Haven’t Certified Their Results
&
16 State Conventions Remain

As Don Ford says & as I’ve mentioned in previous articles, we can gain (& we have gained) delegates at the state conventions — New Jersey’s is today and, after that, there are 15 more State Conventions to go.

In addition to the state conventions, WV, MT, PA, NC, MI, VT, GA, AR, CT, KY, WI, MN, and the Virgin Islands — which are all supposed to have certified results by now — have not certified their results, yet — this is apparently due to pending legal decisions, re-counts, & various complications & “irregularities.” This is very complex — each state or territory is a separate & unique case and, with so many moving parts, it is difficult to predict what will come of all this. The corporate-media won’t admit it but there are a lot of wild-cards in this deck — if you are in any of those places, I’d encourage you to figure out what is happening & to see if you can get involved in some way.

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is this: as a movement, we are going to try to grab those 193 delegates in any way that we can — that may seem like a really difficult thing to do & that’s because it pretty much is. It is not impossible, however. There is a good amount of time between now & the convention — a lot of things could happen in that time & we’re going to have to use it well, if our social revolution is to succeed!

It is crucial that we unite as one movement — if we spend this time bickering among ourselves, we will lose — so don’t fight with fellow Berners! Of course, emotions are high, at the moment, but we must stand together in solidarity & bring more humans into the movement, not less! They want us to become fragmented, as I’ve written about in the article “Sanderistas, Unite! — do not fall for it!

As Don Ford has written, we are also going to try to change the minds of as many Clinton delegates (both supers & pledged) as we can — I agree with Don that Clinton’s supporters are basically all good people that simply may not know what is at stake, here. The reason that Sanders’ supporters are with him, even when the “news” says the races are over, is that our consciences will not allow us to vote for someone like Clinton — I believe that there are many very good reasons for this and, if we can bring these good reasons to the attention of Clinton’s delegates, who also have consciences, things could change in a big way on the convention floor. In order to do that, though…

We Must Win the Media-War

I’ll be blunt, here — the establishment & their corporate-allies are trying to black us out. They are telling everyone that the nomination is over, that we are all going to fall in line behind their candidate, & that we’re just a fringe-movement for white, male college-students, now. They’re hoping to scare enough of us onto C/inton’s side withbig, bad McDrumpf-Face — we must let them know that that will not be happening! We need to flood the internet with pro-Bernie Sanders articles, memes, hashtags, & whatever else — if we can make enough noise, we will break through the blackout & their plan will fail. If we don’t win the media-war, all of our other goals will become very difficult to achieve.

To help us break through, you can share, re-tweet, re-blog, & re-post this article &others like it — also, share other truthful, progressive, pro-Bernie articles, memes, & videos, from people like Don Ford, H.A. Goodman, & Lee Camp (& many others). Here’s the Berner’s Media Index of a lot of relevant articles, too — now, go forth & break the internet.

(and don’t forget to keep talking about #ExitPollGate!)

To Sum It All Up

Now, I must away to work on a big math-article (that will include video!) that’s related to the article that I wrote recently about #ExitPollGate — in the meantime, remember:

  1. Hillary Clinton has not & will not clinch the nomination — it will be decided on July 25th & I hope to #SeeYouInPhillyIgnore all “news” that claims otherwise — or, better yet, correct the record…
  2. California still has millions of ballots left to count & many states have not yet certified their results — the delegate counts will change between now & the convention, it is only a question of by how much. We must be patient.
  3. The corporate-media vipers are trying to blackout our movement — but they will fail because we are awesome! Plus, we understand the internet better than they do — we must use that understanding to break the silence!

I will write to you all, soon — until then, stay strong, stay kind, & stand together…

In solidarity,
John Laurits #SeeYouInPhilly

P.S. If you’re a twitter-er, keep up the #StillSanders, #OnlyBernie, #StayInTheRace, #SeeYouInPhilly — &, of course, #ExitPollGate!

Also, (if you haven’t already) you might wanna read & SHARE these recent articles: “Take Heart, Berner!,” “Why I will #SeeYouInPhilly,” “What is #ExitPollGate?,” & “What is ‘Democracy?’”

P.P.S. And don’t forget to RSVP to listen to Bernie Sanders’ livestream statement this Thursday!

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