Judgment Day: According to Math

judgment

This article was initially written by John Laurits on his blog.  I wanted to share it here because not all of my followers here are my followers on Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

Judgment Day
According to Math

Greetings, my friends! Wait — No. No — I think we can move past that, now —

Greetings, my brothers, my sisters, & others — this may be the last time that I write to you about the numbers of Judgment Day & I want you all to be prepared with the knowledge that you’ll need to lead our charge into the future & to victory. I have already written to you about two of the June 7th primaries, California & New Jersey, and now I’d like to write about the remaining states: North Dakota, South Dakota, New Mexico, & Montana.  But first — some good news!

The latest polling in California has Bernie Sanders leading Hillary Clinton by one percentage point — and, just as we’ve done time & again in many other states, I know that we can push that lead further, day by day! But, while California & New Jersey are very important, we must not neglect the other states that will be voting on Judgment Day. (and don’t forget that Puerto Rico votes tomorrow!)

Though there is woefully little polling data for most of these states, I’d like to take a moment to look at the numbers that we do have…

 

Montana & the Two Dakotas

There are basically no polls that I can tell you about, here — aside fromone small poll that was conducted in 2015 (and is basically worthless, at this point). Despite the lack of polling data, there are many, many reasons to feel optimistic about these three states…

Montana: the Treasure State
Pledged Delegates: 21

As far as Montana goes, I can tell you that Clinton lost it, in 2008, to the more-progressive Obama with a solid 15.1% spread between them — that could be very good for us. Another, similarly-good sign is that Montana was one of Ralph Nader’s best states (you know, the Green Party “spoiler” of 2000?) and, for what it’s worth, Montana seems to have a strong anti-establishment streak. 

The demographics also look good for us here! Montana is largely white but a strong 7% of its population is Native American — and Sanders tends to do well withboth of these groups. Oh — and did I mention that Montana’s primary is open?

For all of these reasons, every article I could find predicts a Sanders win. Let’s prove them right — but let’s go further and win by more than anyone ever dreamed! If you’re reading this in Montana — please, for the love of god, get out there and knock on every door you can see (shouldn’t be too hard in MT, right?)!

North Dakota: Peace Garden State
Pledged Delegates: 18

In North Dakota, Clinton was only able to grab about 35% of the 2008 primary vote — that would be right on target for us but let’s see if we can do even betterthan Obama did!

North Dakota is an open caucus state — and that should be like music to your ears, my friends! Everyone knows that open primaries are best for Bernie & that he generally does very well in caucuses — but it gets better! Remember Idaho, Utah, Washington, & Hawaii? You know, where Sanders won by about 77%, 78%, 71%, & 73%? Those were all open caucuses. In fact, with the exception of Iowa, Sanders has won every single open caucus with at least 23 percentage points over Clinton!

If any of you are in North Dakota, now is the time to knock on every door that you can before you collapse of exhaustion!

South Dakota: the Mount Rushmore State
Pledged Delegates: 20

South Dakota will be holding a semi-open primary and, like both Montana & North Dakota, the demographics heavily favor Sanders87% white & 10% Native American.

Although a massive win is less likely in South Dakota than in North Dakota (semi-open primary vs open caucus), there’s no reason that Sanders shouldn’t be able to do extremely well in all three of the states that we’ve talked about so far.

 

New Mexico: Land of Enchantment
Delegates: 34

Out of the four states that we’re talking about in this article, New Mexico will probably be the most difficult for Sanders. Difficult, yes — but that doesn’t mean that we can’t win, there.

Clinton won here, in 2008 — but only by a narrow 1% margin. More than any state that I’ve recently looked at, New Mexico feels like a wild-card. A lot of pollsters & trollsters believe the Land of Enchantment is almost certainly a win for Clinton — I must, however, respectfully disagree.

Many are assuming that, because New Mexico holds a closed primary, it will be an easier win for Clinton but I think they’re mistaken. Sure, Clinton has generally fared better in closed primaries — but not lately. In May, Clinton was barely able to pull off a tie in Kentucky’s closed primary (a state she comfortably won in 2008) and she lost by at least a 14-point margin (see my recent article) in Oregon’s closed primary. These are YUGE indicators that Clinton’s campaign is suffering, even among registered democrats (Don’t believe me? Look, her support is falling among dems in California, too!)

The other big reason that Clinton is supposed to win here is that New Mexico has a very high Hispanic population. Let me tell ya — I’m getting a bit tired of this one. Clinton’s supporters seem to think that literally every non-white human being on earth adores her but —

Alaska, Hawaii, & Washington (the state with the highest Native-population, the least-white state, & the 7th most diverse state) beg to differ! And, a bit closer to New Mexico, Sanders destroyed Clinton among Hispanic voters in Nevada’s caucus, too!

 

California & New Jersey
Pledged Delegates: 475 & 126

Both of these states are such heavy-weight champs that I’ve given them each their own article — if you haven’t checked them out already, you should! Here they are ↓

<<California>>  |  <<New Jersey>>

There! We’ve taken a look at every state that votes this Tuesday, on Judgment Day, June 7th. I have no more numbers for you, today — only a few more words of advice, before we part.

To Sum It All Up

Berners, Sanderistas, my beloved friends — it is in our hands, now. I’ve done the best that I can do to battle the false numbers, the messages of hopelessness, & the trumped-up media-narratives — but the time for talking has passed & the time for doing is upon us — every one of us.

If you live in Montana, North or South Dakota, New Mexico, New Jersey, or California — this is the time for you. If you’re going to act — act now! I continue to stand by what I’ve said from the very beginning:

If we want it badly enough, we can win.

But that means that we all have to do our part. If each one of us does what they can to help, this revolution will succeed — but, if all that we do is talk, it will fail. Do not assume that others are “taking care of it.” Each of us has a task — some will be big and others will be small, but —

no one can stand in your place to do what you could have done.

This is the meaning of solidarity! If we act as one, we can become more powerful than the media, the CEOs, the Clinton-Machine — yes, we are more powerful than the establishment itself! But only if we act as one — this is not an automated-revolution. Our fate is one of hard-work & sacrifice!

These next two days — the 5th, the 6th — if you can donate, then donate! If you can phonebank, then phonebank! If you live in one of the states above, then pleasecanvass! Talk to your friends & family! Share this & other helpful articles on social media! Textbank! Facebank! But, for heaven’s sake, do something! 

And I know that you all know better than to listen to what the media will say —

The future is not fixed!

It is not written! 

If you have ears, then hear: we can achieve victory!

Whatever happens on Tuesday, whatever we hear on the internet & on the TV that night, I promise you this: it will be the result of the actions that we are taking, right now. Heed these words!

I must go, now — I am working on one last set of numbers to show you, before June 7th. In the meantime, please share this and, more importantly, please do whatever you can do to help Bernie Sanders win the Judgment Day Primaries.

You will make all the difference.

In solidarity,
John Laurits #SeeYouInPhilly

P.S. We snagged another delegate at the state-convention level, the other day, as well (just as I’ve talked about, here) — and I’ll be redoing the delegate math after the Puerto Rico primary, tomorrow

P.S.S. If you haven’t seen it already, the People’s Math Front has a new page up, “Info-Art!” Please, get some of those memes circulating!

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