The Real Numbers: New Jersey!


This article was initially written by John Laurits on his blog.  I wanted to share it here because not all of my followers here are my followers on Facebook, Twitter or Google+.

Greetings, my friends — and a very special kind of welcome to you, as well, my trolls! Today, we’re going to talk about New Jersey. The Garden State — the state where Bernie Sanders’ most-awesome message of people-powered democracy has yet to be reflected positively in the polls and a state which only the wildest dreamers,poets, & optimistic fools believe Sanders could win –!

Well, first, I’d like you to know that I’m fully aware that — right after I say what I’m about to say — my opponents, detractors, & trolls will be blowing up the comment section (& my inbox) with cynical laughter and cruel derision but —

I believe that we have a chance in New Jersey — and I say that with a straight face.

And why not? Those who have eyes, let them see & those who have ears, let them hear! Doesn’t the very existence of this movement defy the establishment’s, the media’s, & the pollsters’ expectations? Wouldn’t the pollsters & trollsters have laughed if I had said that Bernie Sanders would win in Michigan, when he was 20-points down in the polls? And didn’t we pull off the greatest upset of the century there? (538 gave us less than a 1% chance to win that one!)

And did we not leap forward by ten points — at the very last second — in Wisconsin?

And what do the trolls make of Indiana — where the polls showed Clinton ahead by 7 points? Indiana, where we closed that 7-point gap & went further, leaving the former-secretary 6-points behind, in our dust?

But enough about the trolls — let’s look at the polls!

So — how’s it looking?

Well, I’m going to be honest with you (oddly refreshing, huh?) — the absolute best number that we’re looking at is a recent Rutgers-Eagleton poll, from April, that shows us trailing Clinton by 9 points. The latest poll, by Quinnipiac, shows Clinton with 54% & Sanders with 40% — a dismal stretch of 14 points!

And here’s a chart of all the different polls, for those of you who are visual learners:

pollster new jersey


I am pleased, however, that our numbers have done nothing but rise — meanwhile, as always, Clinton’s have done nothing but fall! 

I must be clear, however — I will not pretend that we somehow have great chances to win in New Jersey (you know, like the Clintonistas pretend that she has great chances against Trump?). And yet, I do believe that we can upset New Jersey — it would not be an easy task, of course, and it will probably require a lot of phonebanking (hint, hint!) and, perhaps, a bit of luck or some prayer, as well — but it’s possible, if we want it to be! 

We’ve won with worse odds.

That’s what the polls will never show and that’s what the trolls will never understand: the future is not some dusty, lifeless, unchanging place that we are traveling to — the future is something living, something that we are creating today, with the actions that we are taking now & the beliefs that we choose to adopt now

Do you choose to resign the battle of New Jersey to fate? Or do you choose tophonebank? Do you believe that we have a chance — or, if we don’t — do you believe that we can make oneI cannot tell you what will happen but I can tell you that — whatever it is — it will be the result of what we are choosing to think, believe, and do, NOW.

I, for one, believe in New Jersey & I believe in you.

In solidarity,
John Laurits #SeeYouInPhilly

P.S. If ye’d like to see the real numbers in California, go HERE, & for the real numbers of the June 5th Puerto Rico Primary, go HERE.

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