Delegate Math Path To A Contested Convention (After Indiana)

IndianaPrimary

The Pledged Delegate Count is currently sitting at Bernie Sanders at 1,411 and Hillary Clinton at 1,701 for a difference of 290 Pledged Delegates.  There are still 934 Pledge Delegates left to divvy up.  In order for Hillary Clinton to reach the 2,383 Pledged Delegates needed to clinch the nomination, she will have to take 73.02% of the remaining Pledged Delegates up for grabs.  Bernie Sanders can not reach the 2,383 Pledged Delegates anymore, as he would need 104.07% of the remaining Pledged Delegates.  This is not to say that Bernie Sanders can not still win the nomination.  With the remaining state primaries left, it is statistically impossible for Hillary Clinton to get 73.02% of the remaining Pledged Delegates.

This will put us into Contested Convention Mode.  The total number of Pledged Delegates available from all 50 states, plus Washington D.C., U.S. Territories and Democrats abroad is 4,051.  If Bernie can reach 2,026 by the time of the convention, he can make the case for the Super Delegates to switch their allegiance.  A lot of these Super Delegates are elected officials that know that going against the will of the people is political suicide and will change their support to Bernie Sanders.  The question is, can Bernie Sanders reach the 2,026 mark?  Bernie will need to get at least 65.85% of the remaining Pledged Delegates to reach the magic 2,026 going into a contested convention.  In contrast, Hillary needs only 34.80% of the remaining Pledged Delegates to reach 2,026.  While this may look rather daunting, keep in mind that we are heading to some of the most Liberal states in the union.  California is a semi-open primary with 475 Pledged Delegates up for grabs.

Whatever the outcome, this will certainly be an extremely interesting, nail biter nomination.  With a contest this close, a statistical tie, anything can happen at a contested convention.  We need all of the Pledge Delegates that we can get.  I know that at my County and District Conventions here in Iowa, the conventions pretty much came down to an endurance trial with my County Convention lasting 14.5 hours and my District lasting 18 hours.  I only ask that anyone that is a Pledged Delegate at any level, please stay until the very end of the Convention.  I am doing everything that I can to help move America forward by trying to get Bernie Sanders the nomination and, ultimately, the Presidency.

EDITED 5/5/2016:  The numbers I had before did not include the Pledged Delegates from Indiana.  This has been corrected and the math re-calculated.

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